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annoyances internet technology

Data Caps – Bad, Ugly or Evil?

That’s right, there is no way in the world the data caps imposed by ISPs are in any way good. They are either bad, ugly or evil – or, most likely, all of the above. Here’s why.

By limiting (in any way) our consumption of internet as a resource, ISPs are essentially setting up a mental model that “your internets may run out“. Imagine the next iteration of home routers that, in addition to bandwidth metering will have an off-switch, once you hit 99.9% of your monthly allowance it will switch your connection off to prevent an outage. Your car has ran out of gas. With astronomically high overage fees it’s obvious no one would want to pay for it. Households will – consciously or subconsciously – limit their use of internet. Which means – a lot less online video, online games, in fact – a lot less of our usual online activity as a whole. Your Facebook updates don’t take much, but any video streaming (YouTube/Hulu/Netflix), Skype/Oovoo video chat or games downloading goes out the window. Those cute baby videos you’ve uploaded for your grandma in Michigan – bye bye. If you’re just checking e-mail or working on some documents – you may still fit into your limit, but if your job requires some massive data movement or exchanging large files (think – video editing or backups or database dumps to your local development environment) – goodbye working from home.

Who is going to win? In a short term – ISPs, of course, that will keep profiting until their customers will adjust to new usage patterns. After that (I’ll give it a few months, two – three quarters tops) their cash inflow will significantly drop. In addition to that – they’ll keep spending a fortune on army of lawyers battling class action suits where they will have to explain our computer-illiterate judges why 100kb picture takes 120kb of bandwidth (HTTP headers overhead? Good luck with that mumbo-jumbo). That is – instead of investing money in upgrading the infrastructure.

Who is going to loose? Everyone else. Consumers will suffer the most, since there is no real way we can vote against that, thanks to government supported monopolies (try finding an alternative to a high-speed ISP in your area). We may actually go back to REAL human interaction, exchanging movies and TV programs via removable flash drives and hard drives (Arrgh, those damn pirates would never stop, would they!). Content providers will see a decrease in demand which, in turn, will result in a lot less money available to be invested in the whole online content business model. They will have to spend another fortune on lobbying laws and regulations in their favor – instead of spending that money on acquiring better content or improving their own infrastructure (CDNs and such).

Most likely in a few years we’ll see giants like Google, Apple and, maybe even some movie studios, if they hire CEOs that can see a bit further their noses and expensive suits, will lobby for some kind of solution that will neutralize the negative effects of caps, at least to a satisfactory level. However, the time we will lose will inevitably put us so far behind our main technology competitors that we may never be able to catch up. It’ll be like cell phone market – we’re still paying around $5 for 200 SMS (while they are totally free to phone company) and are capped to measly 2GB of cell data plans while in some other “not-so great” countries people already using their cell phones for video streaming and full blown video conferencing. Try that on your 2GB plan of “fastest some-G network” that drops regular voice calls like crazy in the middle of the largest US cities.

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technology

Your Own Personal Google

The time for New Year predictions have come and gone, so this projection will have a slight chance of being taken a bit more serious. So here’s my little list of predictions of what will happen throughout 2011 and what we will most likely see before 2012.

5. Mobile Market
Main mobile carriers will continue to shoot themselves in the foot with limited data plans. LTE/4G and other buzz words are great to create a marketing hype, but once price-conscious consumers figure out the part with low caps the adoption rates will suffer. Then someone (probably ClearWire or some other minor market player) will introduce an unlimited plan (or something that is a lot more relaxed) and that will kick majors into the right direction. But don’t expect the common sense to win this year.

4. Tablets
Tablets will continue to be a hot trend, but consumers will mostly figure out that tablets are poor substitute for netbook. In light of this tablets based on Android platform will generally do better than others (iOS, Windows) essentially becoming a middle-tier device between phones and laptops. This also might slow down the adoption of newer smartphones, as more tasks formerly assigned to smartphones are easier and faster done on tablets. We might even see the return of Motorola RAZR!

3. Companies
Microsoft will continue to be a behemoth with slow reaction to market trends, however MS Office and Windows 7 will continue to be cash cows. Yahoo will probably become another Netscape, only instead of Microsoft we would have Google. Apple will continue to do better on all fronts with Verizon iPhone and iPad. MacBook Air would remain a unique device in its niche until the end of the year with couple of companies promising something similar in 2012 based off Intel’s Sandy Bridge chipset and, most likely, AMD’s similar offering. PC/laptop manufacturers would still fail to grasp the idea of neat looking laptop, however. RIM finally will completely miss the train and will visibly fall behind Android/iOS devices, regardless of the tablet.

2. Cloud
Will NOT become as widespread as media wants us to believe. The main reason for it would be mobile carriers who will push for limited data plans (see #5), effectively barring users from using the cloud to its fullest potential. In 2011 content providers will probably realize that cloud is one of the best DRMs their money can buy so by year’s end we can see some fighting in that sector.

1. Your Personal Google
Google already personalizes search results heavy enough. What we are most likely to see by the end of the year is what amounts to “your personal Google” – or, rather, search results personalized so heavily that for any number of people first page would be 40 to 60%% different for the same query. Google already stores your search history and preferences, so building on top of that shouldn’t be a big deal. The SEO as we know it will, again, completely change.

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technology

Juggling The Hardware

Juggling Gadgets - Small Business Blog It’s no secret that I am somewhat a gadget junkie. If I was working for some of the blogs that review gadgets constantly, I would probably forget the paycheck now and then. However, I don’t work for any such place, therefore experience a gadget hunger once in a while.

However, as I go along with many of them, I tend to realize that half of the gadgets are useless in 99% of cases. Depending on the work flow, a different set of gadgets is needed, so here’s mine:

  • Lenovo W701 laptop – my main power horse. Despite being exactly what I wanted I regret the purchase from time to time, thinking I should have opted for a smaller machine that would not take up a whole table at Starbucks.
  • Lenovo X61s laptop – the opposite extremity. While I wanted the lightest laptop possible, I didn’t quite realized, until later of course, that 12 inch screen with 1024×768 resolution is a little too small, especially for meetings with clients.
  • Droid/iPhone – or any smart phone for that matter. Surprisingly, I find myself more and more demanding only one thing from my phone – that is making/receiving calls. E-mails, notes, web, news, books and everything else from “on the go” menu has gone to iPad that is just as easy to flip out but has a lot more screen real estate.
  • Four 1TB USB-connected hard drives – too many connections, too slow a speed. I might only need one out of those four (or is it five?) drives, yet they are constantly connected for that “just in case” moment.
  • IBM T42p Windows XP based file server – this would have been a disgrace all by itself, especially given how many Linux servers we are running at Zealus, if not for this: despite all the rumors of Windows being a buggy unstable system and all, it’s been running without reinstall for OVER 2 YEARS straight! OF course, I don’t install a lot of software on it, and, of course, I keep up with patches. And the hardware is amazing too.
  • Gateway FHD 24 inch monitor – it’s like every acid junkie’s wet dream, the colors are so over saturated that my color calibrator gave up. Seriously.

So what am I replacing this zoo with in the course of a next year or so?

  • Lenovo W701 laptop – not going anywhere. It’s a solid performer and I doubt I will be replacing it any time soon. Given its 17 inch screen and 8 GB RAM – it hasn’t exhausted all its capabilities yet
  • Lenovo X61s laptop – I was thinking about Macbook Air, given how slim it is, but by the time Apple will have decided to update the hardware it will again be obsolete, so I wouldn’t even bother. Currently looking at ASUS UL80-J series, the one with 14 inch screen and Core i3 CPU. Alternatively, I just might go for Lenovo’s T410 series.
  • Droid/iPhone – I am keeping my iPhone 3GS at least until the end of the contract anyway, since that’s in February I guess I will be able to see all the offers of this year. But my primary urge is for Motorola Razor, so if you have one laying around – send it my way.
  • Four 1TB USB-connected hard drives + IBM T42p Windows XP based file server – will have to be combined into consumer NAS. There is no other way around this, unless I opt out for entry level server box.
  • Gateway FHD 24 inch monitor – being replaced with new IPS-based Apple Cinema display. Given how hard I am hitting photography now there is little, if any, alternatives left.

Have your own idea? Send it to me before Christmas shopping hits my wallet!